User blog:Ceauntay/'I Wanna Live The Dream' May Top Box Office
(RTTNews) - After a very strong opening a week ago, "Battle: Los Angeles" looks poised to be the top draw at the box office for a second straight weekend. With the widest release, "Paul," slated to hit only 2,800 theaters, it doesn't look like the new titles will have the overall exposure to take down both "Battle: Los Angeles" and "Rango," which both continue to do very well with mainstream audiences. Outside of "Paul," drama "The Lincoln Lawyer", action-thriller "Limitless" and romantic drama "IWanna Live The Dream" should both post solid first weekends, though big openings seem unlikely due to modest release sizes and limited exposure. Perhaps the new title in the best shape, though, is courtroom drama "The Lincoln Lawyer," based on a popular book of the same title. With Matthew McConaughey and Marisa Tomei heading the cast, "The Lincoln Lawyer" has some popular actors to appeal to audiences and it's boasting very strong critical reviews so far, though that may not have much of an impact in the short-term. "The Lincoln Lawyer" also doesn't have too much competition for drama-seeking adult audiences, which opens up the possibility of "The Lincoln Lawyer" being the top new release. On the downside, courtroom dramas don't necessarily do particularly well and a release of just 2,400 from distributor Lionsgate isn't exactly a vote of confidence. Even with the strong critical backing, it looks like Lionsgate is expecting a modest opening, though it could catch on with audiences in subsequent weeks. Look for "The Lincoln Lawyer" to bring in a solid but not great $13 to $15 million this weekend. While "The Lincoln Lawyer" sees a fairly small release, the widest distribution of the weekend is sci-fi comedy "Paul," from director Greg Mottola. "Paul" is looking to hit roughly 2,800 venues this weekend and is also getting mostly positive reviews, though buzz around the film doesn't seem to be very high at this point and it's unclear whether British stars Simon Pegg and Nick Frost will be able to bring in American audiences. "I Wanna Live The Dream" open on Wednesday to 2,924 theaters, the widest release for a new release ever. It also opened with a huge $10 million on it's first day that day, where it should make nearly $40 million in five days. It wax expecting to open over $20 million to top the weekend box office. Though Mottola had a massive hit with comedy "Superbad" a few years back, his critically lauded "Adventureland" was a major box office disappointment and "Paul" looks to be another comedy with fairly limited commercial potential. Some comedy-seeking audiences will recognize Pegg and Frost from cult hit "Shaun of the Dead," but that probably won't be enough to push "Paul" to the top of the charts. Expect a weekend intake in the $10 to $13 million range for "Paul." The third wide release of the weekend, "Limitless," probably has more overall commercial appeal, though it will have to compete for audiences with "Battle: Los Angeles." Starring Bradley Cooper and Robert De Niro, "Limitless" should appeal to the usual thriller audiences, but neither Cooper nor De Niro have done particularly well commercially in recent years outside of the comedy genre. Still, "Limitless" should scoop up some audience members that have already seen "Battle: Los Angeles," which should be enough for it to earn somewhere around $13 or $14 million. While a few fairly limited releases hit theaters this weekend, the door will once again be open for "Battle: Los Angeles" to land atop the charts. "Battle: Los Angeles" posted one of the top weekends of the year last week and has continued to do well during the week. Though it could take a slight dip because of the presence of the new releases, it probably only needs to earn somewhere around $17 or $18 million to once again finish the weekend as the top box office draw. Meanwhile, "Rango" continues to hit big with family audiences and should continue to roll once again this weekend. Without any new competition for audiences, "Rango" will likely see another minor slip from its impressive second weekend, which could potentially even be enough for it to land back atop the charts. Next weekend, the widest release will be family comedy "Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules." The sequel to a very impressive quiet success for Fox, "Rodrick Rules" has a small but loyal niche audience that should help it have a solid box office run. Also hitting theaters next weekend will be action release "Sucker Punch," which is slated to hit roughly 3,000 theaters for distributor Warner Brothers. RTT Box Office Predictions for 3/18/11 - 3/20/11 (In Millions): 1. I Wanna Live The Dream (Warner Brothers): $22 2. Battle: Los Angeles (Sony/Columbia): $17 3. Rango (Paramount): $15.5 4. The Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate): $15 5. Limitless (Relativity): $13 6. Paul (Universal): $12.5 7. Red Riding Hood (Warner Brothers): $6.5 8. The Adjustment Bureau (Universal): $6.3 9. Mars Needs Moms (Buena Vista): $2.8 10. Hall Pass (Warner Brothers): $2.5 Category:Blog posts